If Treasurer Scott Morrison delivers a great budget this week, he'll cement his status as a potential future prime minister.
But if he flubs it –which judging on his performance to date seems the more likely scenario – he might find himself on the same career trajectory as Joe Hockey: from heir apparent to laughing stock.
No pressure, Scott.
When Morrison replaced the hapless Hockey last year the general consensus was he'd be a vast improvement.
Having established a reputation as the Coalition's "Mr Fix-It" – he helped stop the boats as immigration minister and then made a strong start in his short-lived role as social services minister – there were high hopes he was the man to fix that most intractable of problems: the federal budget.
But over the last seven months he hasn't exactly instilled confidence that he's up to this task.
His grand tax reform plans crashed and burned; he's sent mixed messages on everything from negative gearing to multinational tax avoidance; he's stubbornly refused to admit the budget has a revenue problem as well as a spending problem; and all too often he's found himself out of step with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, most notably when he didn't even know the budget had been brought forward.
While Morrison and Turnbull have been dithering, they've allowed Labor to set the economic agenda, giving Opposition Leader Bill Shorten the perfect platform to start sounding like a credible alternative prime minister.
If the government tightens superannuation tax concessions, cracks down on multinational tax avoidance and raises the tobacco levy – all measures expected in Tuesday's budget – it will be following Labor's lead every step of the way.
Perhaps worst of all, Morrison's messaging has been hopeless. He's done scores of media interviews over the last few months but has completely failed to articulate just what this budget is all about. He's given us lots of spin and a few half-hearted slogans – "living within our means" and "jobs and growth" are the latest – but he hasn't given us anything close to an overarching narrative.
Even Hockey established a narrative ahead of the 2014 budget. He set the tone with his "age of entitlement" speech and then used the commission of audit to flag many of the tough love measures he was contemplating.
Ultimately, that didn't help him much. His first budget was just too ham-fisted – and broke too many election promises – for Australians to accept. But if people were taken by surprise they weren't paying attention.
All this bodes ill for Morrison's ability to sell the budget in the weeks to come. And if he stuffs that up – right in the middle of the campaign – he could do serious damage to the Turnbull government's re-election chances.
Morrison is by no means solely to blame for the mess over the last few months. Turnbull too has also been guilty of patronising spin – Malsplaining, Labor calls it – and confusing inconsistency.
But come Tuesday, all eyes will be on the Treasurer.
His task is certainly not an easy one. No other federal Treasurer has had to deliver their first budget two months before an election with a slowing economy and no money to spend just after a bruising leadership change.
It's a diabolical challenge. He can't afford to buy anyone's votes but he can't afford to lose any either – especially with Labor now pulling ahead in a number of the regular opinion polls. But he also can't afford to anger the Coalition conservatives who want to see spending cut and the deficit reduced.
If recent reports are to be believed, the government is going to tell us it's making $16 billion in savings. But as Deloitte Access Economics warned this week, it's also looking at a further $16 billion writedown in revenue. Deloitte predicts the deficit could increase from $37.4 billion to more than $40 billion.
So Morrison has to deliver a responsible budget that doesn't cut too deeply but doesn't raise taxes while providing a credible path back to surplus. A budget that will bolster growth and boost business confidence but will also be seen as fair and equitable. A budget that doesn't make enemies of powerful interest groups or the states, and doesn't hand Labor any easy scare campaigns.
It's got to be boring enough that it doesn't make too many waves, but it's also got to give the government something positive to talk about during the mammoth seven-week election campaign that will follow.
And if all that's not bad enough, Morrison will deliver the budget on the same day the Reserve Bank will very possibly cut interest rates in a bid to reverse deflation – thereby highlighting the fragility of the post-boom economy and robbing Morrison of his ability to control the economic story on his big day.
Morrison is spinning plates in a hurricane.
But let's not feel sorry for him. This is the job he wanted. And it's only his government, job and reputation on the line.
No pressure, Scott.
